Senator Susan Collins, a five-term Republican, trails her Democratic challenger Graham Platner by only two points, according to a new survey—the latest sign of a tightening race in a must-win state for Democrat hopes in taking control of the upper chamber.

Maine is likely the Democrats' best opportunity to flip a Senate seat from GOP control in the 2026 midterms. The blue-leaning state backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by about 7 points in 2024, and the national environment is expected to favor Democratic candidates. But Collins has served for nearly 30 years, consistently finding a way to win tough races in the state and cultivating a popular moderate image.

The tightening of the polling numbers comes amid a series of controversies surrounding Platner, a political newcomer who quickly drew support from the left flank of the Democratic Party. He has faced backlash over resurfaced Reddit posts, a controversial tattoo and behaviors in past romantic relationships.

The new poll found that 30.2 percent of respondents say those controversies will be “very important” to voters.

The poll from Wick and 2WAY is the latest in a series of surveys suggesting Collins has gained ground despite Platner’s early polling lead, a potential red flag for Democrats who know the race is critical to winning a Senate majority in President Donald Trump's second round of midterm elections.

Maine Senate Poll: What to Know

The new poll, first reported by Politico, showed Platner leading Collins by just over two points, 47.6 percent to 45.4 percent, falling within the polls' margin of error. Seven percent of respondents said they were still undecided.

Collins’ favorability stood at -9 points in the poll, slightly worse than Platner’s -7.1 net favorability.

It surveyed 1,008 Mainers from June 11 to June 14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

A Tightening Race

Other polls have also signaled a tightening race in Maine.

A Quantus Insights poll, which surveyed 870 likely voters from June 9 to June 11, showed the Democrat up a single point with 46 percent compared to Collins’ 45 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

A previous Quantus poll, taken among 800 likely voters on March 5, showed Platner up by 7 points with 49 percent support to Collins’ 42 percent.

A Tavern Research poll, which surveyed 1,642 likely voters from June 5 to June 8, showed Platner up 2 points, 51 percent to 49 percent. That one carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

A recent Public Policy Polling survey shows Platner with a slightly larger lead of 4 points, 49 percent to 45 percent. That poll surveyed 670 registered voters from June 2 to June 3, 2026, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Other pre-scandal polls showed Platner with a larger lead. A Pan Atlantic Research poll, conducted from May 8 to May 18 among 827 likely voters, showed Platner with a 48 percent to 41 percent lead.

The position is not new for Collins. In 2020, she trailed Democratic challenger Sara Gideon in a number of polls, but ended up cruising to a nearly 9-point election victory. She won that race despite President Joe Biden easily winning the state over Trump by more than nine points.

The state is generally considered difficult to poll due to its independent electorate, large rural population, and use of ranked choice voting.

Platner Scandals Explained

Platner, who quickly drew support from Democrats’ progressive wing when he jumped into the race, has faced a series of scandals on the campaign trail. Many of his supporters, including progressive Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, have continued to back the candidate. While polls are tightening, the race is still viewed as highly competitive for November.

The new poll found that 30.2 percent of Mainers believe the controversies will be “very important” to voters, while 25.6 percent believe they will be “somewhat important.” Meanwhile, 38.1 percent said they believe most voters will focus on other issues.

Here is a look at how these scandals have entered the Maine Senate race.

New York Times Report Into Past Relationships

Platner drew scrutiny after The New York Times reported allegations about his behavior in past romantic relationships.

One former girlfriend of Platner's, Lyndsey Fifield, a conservative who has worked for Republican campaigns, alleged that Platner had engaged in physically threatening behavior during their relationship over a decade ago. She alleged that Platner twisted her arm behind her back during an argument, shoved her into a bedroom and blocked her from exiting.

Fifield told the outlet that Platner "never hit me, he never punched me." The Times said it could not independently corroborate the incidents alleged by Fifield.

Platner has strongly denied those accusations, saying allegations involving physicality are "simply not true" and described the comments as politically motivated.

The Times interviewed six of Platner's former girlfriends for the piece, three of whom said they back his candidacy.

Wall Street Journal Report Into Explicit Texts

Days prior to the Times report, The Wall Street Journal reported that Platner’s wife, Amy Gertner, reportedly informed Platner campaign aides during an internal vetting exercise in August that he had sent sexually explicit text messages to several women. The disclosure was intended to ensure the information did not catch the campaign off guard.

Genevieve McDonald, former Democratic state legislator and Platner campaign political director until October, who had been cited as bringing the information forward, previously told Newsweek: "I can confirm the details of what has been reported and what Graham Platner’s campaign has already admitted to on the record, that he was sexting multiple women while married and that the campaign tried to assess that as an election vulnerability when his wife brought it to the campaign’s attention."

Platner has dismissed the reports as "gossip" and has acknowledged strains in his marriage, though he framed them as resolved.

"Amy and I went through something hard—because of me. We did the work, and I’m grateful for her every hour of every day," he said in a written statement.

Gertner said in a video posted by Platner's campaign that they have a "great marriage" and that "being married is hard."

Totenkopf Tattoo

Platner earlier faced controversy over the revelation that he had a tattoo resembling the Totenkopf, or "death’s head," a symbol adopted by the Nazi SS.

He has apologized and previously told Newsweek: "I absolutely would not have gone through life having this on my chest if I knew that—and to insinuate that I did is disgusting. I am already planning to get this removed."

Resurfaced Reddit Posts

Past Reddit posts from Platner have also drawn scrutiny. In one, Platner said he "became older and became a communist." In another, in response to a person who posted that white people "aren't as racist or stupid as Trump thinks," he replied: "Living in white rural America, I’m afraid to tell you they actually are."

He told Politico last year: "I made dumb jokes and picked fights. But of course I’m not a socialist. I’m a small-business owner, a Marine Corps veteran and a retired s*** poster."

Platner’s Record-Breaking Primary Win

Despite these scandals, Platner sailed to victory in the Democratic primary earlier in June, winning 153,401 votes, or 71.9 percent, as of June 16, according to the Associated Press, which reported that 97 percent of votes had been counted.

That is more than any Democratic Senate candidate in Maine history. Many Democrats viewed the strong showing as a sign of strength heading into the general election.

Platner, during a victory speech last week, emphasized that he has changed since those earlier actions and pledged to earn the trust of disappointed Mainers.

"If you believe, as I do, that we can change our politics and change our country, then you must also believe that people can change. And the reason I believe that is because I have lived it," he said.

GOP Sees Close Race

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, in a memo reported by Fox News, warned it would be a “fatal mistake to assume Platner is too damaged to win.”

“He is currently leading. Vice President Harris won the state by 7 points, and the National Democrats view this as their only path to regaining control. Senator Collins has won tough races before and can win this one, but only if we meet this moment with total urgency,” the memo reads.

‘Blue Wave’ Could Boost Platner

Democrats believe 2026 polling shows that there could be a “blue wave” in midterms due to a number of factors, including Trump’s declining national approval rating, which has suffered due to ongoing concerns about the cost of living and higher gas prices amid the Iran war. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in the midterms.

During Trump's first term in office, Democrats were able to regain control in the House by picking up a whopping 41 seats in the 2018 midterms. They were unable to fight an unfavorable map in the Senate, however, and lost two seats, increasing the GOP majority at the time to 53-47.

Collins, a moderate, has sought to distance herself from Trump over the years, but Platner and Democrats have cast her as less independent than she once was. During his victory speech, Platner, who has said he voted for Collins in the past, said she has “become just as spineless and corrupt as the establishment she now serves.”

Trump has never been particularly popular in Maine. He lost the state by 7 points in 2024, 9 points in 2020 and 3 points in 2016. While he has made inroads in the rural, northern part of the state, cities like Portland and the more liberal southern region have powered Democratic victories in the Pine Tree State.

Meanwhile, Collins’ popularity in Maine has taken a hit over recent years. Her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh took a toll on her approval rating, which fell from +21 points in the first quarter of 2018 to -12 points by the fourth quarter of 2019, according to Morning Consult polling.

Maine Is Must-Win for Democrats

Maine, due to its ongoing blue lean in other races, is a top target for Democrats as they hope to flip control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority. Democrats must flip four seats for a majority but again face a difficult map this year.

In addition to Maine, North Carolina's seat vacated by retiring Thom Tillis is viewed as a top flip target in a state Trump won by only 3 points in 2024.

There are no other Harris-won or single-digit Trump seats up for grabs, so Democrats must target more conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas to flip additional seats. Democrats losing Maine would all but eliminate their path to a majority.

What Happens Next

Forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball view the race as a toss-up ahead of the November 3 election. Maine is expected to be one of the most competitive elections that will draw significant investment and attention from both parties over the coming months.