Ships are slowly trickling through the Strait of Hormuz following the announcement of a peace deal between the US and Iran — but it will take more than two months for traffic to return to pre-war levels, experts warned.
Only a handful of ships have started crossing the strait since Sunday’s agreement, including the Malta-flagged Disha gas tanker, which was among the first to openly transit Hormuz as it heads for India.
The majority of the 500 ships trapped in the Persian Gulf, however, are not expected to get underway until Friday’s signing in Switzerland.
Even then, only 15 ships are expected to cross each day, Ana Subasic, a trade risk analyst at the Kpler maritime data firm, told The Post.
“In that scenario, it would take about 30 days to clear out the backlog of ships,” Subasic said. “All in all, it could take eight weeks to tackle all the constraints and issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.”
Prior to the war in Iran, more than 130 ships flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, which also oversaw the transport of 20% of the world’s oil supply.
It may take even longer to return to that shipping level — because disagreements still stand between the US and Iran over ownership of the Strait of Hormuz and the uncertainty over how many mines remain in the waterway.
“The key point is that the Strait may reopen quickly from a political or security perspective, but the commercial shipping system is likely to normalize gradually,” said Dimitris Ampatzidis, a maritime risk and compliance manager at Kpler.
Ships will likely wait for confirmation from both the US Navy and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps before braving the strait, added Matthew Reisner, a senior national security analyst at the Center for Maritime Strategy.
Once more ships start crossing without incident, more and more captains will grow confident to go through, but it may take a while before the impacts are felt on the global market, Reisner noted.
“If the peace holds, expect gas prices to begin dropping over the next one to two weeks in response to the decrease in crude oil prices, which already fell more than 5% on Monday morning in response to the announced peace framework,” he said.
“However, it will likely take several months for gas prices to reach their pre-war levels,” Reisner added.
That relief, however, may be further delayed should Iran enact a toll system in the strait following the 60-day cease-fire, which could create a free-for-all as nations try to curry favor with Tehran to get the best deals or look for alternative shipping lanes.
“As a result, we would likely see higher oil prices, longer transit times as some operators reroute, and a more fragmented global shipping market where access to the strait will depend on political alignment, as much as economics,” said Karin Storm, vice president at the Proxima procurement and supply chain consultants.
“Given that around 20% of global oil flows through Hormuz, even modest disruption will feed quickly into inflation, transport costs, and ultimately consumer prices worldwide,” she added.

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