When Nithya Raman entered the Los Angeles mayoral race hours before the filing deadline in February, the city's political class treated it as a long shot against an incumbent she had once endorsed. Four months later, the progressive city council member is the one standing between Mayor Karen Bass and a second term, and the Democratic establishment is uneasy about it.

Breaking down the numbers on Monday, CNN data analyst Harry Enten described a Raman runoff as "an absolute nightmare for the Democratic establishment and Karen Bass," who he said "would have much preferred Spencer Pratt."

With roughly 80 percent of the vote counted on Sunday, Raman moved into second place in the June 2 primary, overtaking former reality television personality Spencer Pratt. The latest results showed:

• Raman with 27.12 percent of the vote.
• Pratt at 26.69 percent.
• Bass led the field with 34.68 percent.

Raman's lead over Pratt stood at 3,113 votes after she finished election night in third place.

Decision Desk HQ projected that Bass and Raman will advance to the November election.

A Familiar Comparison

The result has revived a comparison that has followed Raman since she launched her bid. Like Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist who won the New York mayoralty last year, Raman is young, was relatively unknown outside her district until recently, and rose through city government with backing from the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).

Mamdani's win has become a template progressives across the country are openly trying to replicate, and each attempt forces the party establishment into the same uncomfortable position. For national Democrats, Raman's rise fits the pattern.

Raman, an urban planner born in Kerala, India, who holds degrees from Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has represented the city's 4th district since 2020. She shocked the political establishment that year by unseating Councilmember David Ryu, the first time in 17 years that an incumbent lost a council seat, clearing a path for other DSA-backed candidates in 2022 and 2024.

The parallels go only so far. Mamdani ran in an open primary against a former governor weighed down by scandal. Raman is challenging a sitting mayor with deep roots in the city and the backing of the state's most powerful Democrats. Bass has been endorsed by Governor Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Analysts say Raman's record runs counter to the blank-slate appeal that powered Mamdani's rise. Mike Bonin, a former city council member who leads the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs at California State University, Los Angeles, said the comparison breaks down on that point. "Nithya is more of a known brand than Zohran was. He was more of a blank slate," Bonin told POLITICO. "It's always harder to be the progressive savior when you've been in office."

The DSA said it endorsed 18 candidates over the past year, but Los Angeles represents its biggest test yet. A Raman victory would give the movement control of its second major city and its first on the West Coast, further deepening a divide that party leaders have struggled to manage since Mamdani's breakthrough.

The Wrong Opponent

For Bass and her allies, Raman is the wrong opponent. A poll conducted by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies a week before the June 2 primary suggested she poses a significantly greater threat than Pratt would have. The poll showed Raman leading Bass by 4 points in a head-to-head matchup.

Enten noted that Raman holds a net favorability rating of +5 among Los Angeles voters, while Bass stands at -22. Pratt, meanwhile, was even less popular than the mayor, with a net favorability rating of -32.

"You basically just need someone who's half decently well-liked to be favored, or at least have a real shot against the incumbent," Enten said.

The arithmetic compounded Pratt's problem. Enten noted that just 15 percent of Los Angeles voters are registered Republicans, compared with 55 percent Democrats, and that President Donald Trump's net approval in the city runs roughly 55 points underwater.

"Bass and the Democratic establishment knew that there's basically no chance a Republican could be the next mayor of New York," Enten said.

A Bruised Incumbent

Bass took office in December 2022, and her weak standing reflects a first term defined by overlapping crises:

• The deadly Palisades fire, for which she drew criticism over her response and an ill-timed trip abroad as the disaster unfolded.
• A budget shortfall of roughly $1 billion
• The 2023 Hollywood labor strikes
• Navigating federal immigration enforcement operations that this year prompted the deployment of National Guard troops.

Homelessness, the issue at the center of the race, has been her most persistent vulnerability.

Bass points to two consecutive years of decline and a reduction in street homelessness of almost 18 percent. Critics counter that encampments and rows of rusting RVs remain common across the city, and that progress has come too slowly. Raman has faulted the mayor's signature Inside Safe program, which moves homeless residents indoors, as too costly to sustain.

The criticism lands as Los Angeles faces a hard deadline. The 2028 Olympic Games will open in the next mayor's term, putting the city's handling of homelessness, transit and public safety under international scrutiny within three years.

Raman is also taking on someone she recently called an ally.

"I have deep respect for Mayor Bass," Raman told the Los Angeles Times when she announced her bid. "We've worked closely together on my biggest priorities and her biggest priorities, and there's significant alignment there."

During her 2024 reelection campaign, Raman featured Bass on at least a dozen mailers and aired a video ad excerpting the mayor's endorsement.

Dan Schnur, who teaches political communication at the University of Southern California, the University of California, Berkeley and Pepperdine University, said a runoff against Raman scrambles the mayor's playbook.

"Bass and her advisors believe that they know how to run against Pratt," Schnur told Newsweek. "They'll run the same campaign playbook against a conservative that they did against Rick Caruso four years ago. A contest against a fellow Democrat from the left offers no such template."

The Encampment Fight

The Bass campaign moved to define the matchup on its own terms within hours of the projection. "We look forward to winning a contest against an opponent who allows encampments near schools and fights against hiring more cops, yet is MIA on saving Hollywood jobs and fighting back when ICE invades LA," said Alex Stack, a campaign spokesperson, in a statement shared to Newsweek.

In a follow-up statement, the campaign sharpened the homelessness attack, saying Raman repeatedly voted to allow encampments near schools, daycares and senior centers. It pointed to a remark Raman made at a 2024 Sherman Oaks Homeowners Association debate, where she was asked whether to restrict encampments within 500 feet of schools. "I don't think a kid's gonna be safer if they are 10 feet or 500 feet away from a school," she said, drawing boos from the crowd.

The line resurfaced over Memorial Day weekend after activists staged a fake encampment outside her home. Raman later clarified that she favors a citywide response to homelessness and is less focused on moving encampments from one place to another.

The campaign also touted Bass's record, claiming she reduced street homelessness by almost 18 percent and drove homicides to 60-year lows. Raman's team kept its focus on the result. "We are encouraged by the latest vote count and remain grateful to the thousands of Angelenos who have powered this campaign," the campaign said.

A Test for the Left

The stakes extend beyond the city. The next mayor will guide Los Angeles through its recovery from the 2025 Palisades fire and its preparations for the 2028 Olympic Games, even as encampments and rows of rusting RVs remain common across the city. Raman has pledged to cut street homelessness in half by the 2028 Games.

The deeper question is whether Los Angeles is as progressive as New York, and not everyone is convinced. Jim Kessler, of the center-left think tank Third Way, said the primary results point the other way.

"The big story in both California and Los Angeles is how lackluster progressive performance was across the board," Kessler told Newsweek. He noted that in the governor's race, Xavier Becerra outpolled the better-funded Tom Steyer and Katie Porter combined, and that in Los Angeles the two progressives drew fewer votes than their Republican rivals.

"Who could have imagined that the two leading progressive lights would receive fewer votes than the Republicans in ultra-blue Los Angeles?" he said.

Kessler was equally skeptical that Raman's finish signals a turn. California Democrats have held near-total control of the state for years, and a Raman victory would mark a challenge to the party establishment from within, in a city the left has long wanted to win and never has.

"Winning slightly more than one-quarter of the primary vote does not feel like much of a realignment," he said. "There is no doubt that Karen Bass is an unpopular mayor running for a second term, and that gives Raman a legitimate shot at winning. But second place is still second place."

History favors the incumbent. Of the 10 Los Angeles mayors who have sought a second term since the office moved to four-year terms in 1925, only two have been denied. Whether Raman becomes the third may turn on whether the progressive surge that lifted Mamdani in New York can take root in a city the left has long wanted, and never managed, to win.