Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could rise to nearly 50% of prewar levels within a month if the U.S.-Iran deal is implemented without any major setbacks, analysts at the trade data firm Kpler said Monday.

Washington and Tehran are expected to sign a deal Friday in Switzerland that will open Hormuz and lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iran.

Ships sailing through Hormuz could increase to 40 per day compared to 100 daily transits before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the Kpler analysts said in a research note. About 20% of global oil supplies passed through the strait before Iran started attacking tankers in early March.

Ships stuck in the Persian Gulf that are fully loaded with cargo will cross Hormuz first, the analysts said. There are an estimated 118 tankers in the Gulf that could exit the region within 15 days, they said

The surge of stranded ships exiting the region is a one-time event that should not be interpreted as a durable increase of traffic, the analysts said. The key question is how many vessels will enter the Gulf after the backlog is cleared.

A large number of ships are waiting in the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea for Hormuz to open, said Matt Wright, the lead freight analyst at Kpler. Tankers entering the Persian Gulf could increase to 12 per day, about 50% of prewar levels, in the first 30 days of the U.S.-Iran deal, Wright said.

Shippers that are more cautious will wait and watch to see how the initial transits go, Wright said. They will consider reentering the Gulf if vessels are not attacked and there are no mines, the anlayst said. Insurance rates will start to come down when they vessels start making the journey, he added.

Oil tanker company Frontline believes "vessels will start to move very quickly once a deal is signed," CEO Lars Barstad told CNBC. Frontline operates 80 ships worldwide and has five tankers stuck in the Gulf.

But there are risks that could jeopardize Hormuz reopening. The U.S. and Iran appear to have different interpretations of what the deal entails.

Iranian state media has said ships can transit Hormuz for 60 days without paying a toll. Iran and Oman will then administer the strait after that period, according to state news agency Tasnim.

But Vice President JD Vance told CNBC on Monday that the U.S. expectation is Hormuz will remain toll-free over the long term.

It is unclear how big a threat mines pose to ships transiting Hormuz. President Donald Trump has downplayed the issue, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress earlier this month that Iran mined large segments of the strait.

The global shipping trade group Bimco warned Monday that "the threat of mines in the area remains a concern." It cautioned ships that the security situation is still high risk.

"Due to lack of details and a history of overly optimistic reassurances, we believe the security situation for the shipping industry remains volatile, and we still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point," said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at Bimco.