In the latest sign that the Empire State’s long-term decline is turning critical, nearly half of likely voters across New York say they’re worse off financially than they were a year ago — a grim comment on the state of the state after decades of Democratic dominance.

In the same Marist poll, only 13% report being better off — and the broader numbers for all voters aren’t much different.

More ugly context: Marist found back in February that a full 86% of the state’s residents believe New York is no longer affordable for an average family — with a third of the population planning to move away in the next five years, up from an already-grim 27% back in 2011.

No wonder: US News & World Report ranks the Empire State as 45th out of 50 for affordability, while the nonpartisan Tax Foundation puts us dead last for tax competitiveness and the Citizens Budget Commission ranks us No. 1 for tax burden.

Our cost of living consistently ranks among the highest nationally. 

And our ever-growing tax burden pays for an ever-decreasing quality of public services, from schools to transit to road quality and public safety.

Meanwhile, Gov. Kathy Hochul is clearly signaling tax hikes next year to help fund Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s socialism-in-one-city, not to mention the state’s coming $32 billion budget hole.

(The gov already broke her “no tax hikes” vow this year when she flipflopped to support Mamdani’s pied-à-terre gouge.)

Somehow, Albany can never find anything to cut; spending rose to an all-time high of $269 billion in the current fiscal year.

Good luck soaking the rich much more: New York’s top 1% of earners already pay 46% of state income taxes — and are fleeing, justifiably, from rulers who see them as no more than human piggy banks. 

And mere middle-class folks don’t feel any more love.

The problems have accelerated on Hochul’s watch; she’s hopeless when it comes to reining in the ideologues and the special interests slowly eating New York’s future.

And no, President Donald Trump has nothing to do with the Empire State’s decline — and every candidate obsessing about him is avoiding facing New York’s challenges.

The public seems to get it — that’s why Republican challenger Lee Zeldin came so close to ousting Hochul four years ago, and why Bruce Blakeman has a shot now.

And has one despite Democrats’ huge edge in enrollment, and despite the vast campaign war chests the governor keeps building — by appeasing those special interests and by pretending she’ll protect the rest of us from the ideologues.

Tuesday will be a test not of how much New Yorkers are hurting, but of whether enough voters can connect the dots to see who’s causing their pain.