Sports betting writer Dylan Svoboda is in his third season in the Post’s NFL Bettor’s Guide.

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Don’t let preseason expectations fool you into thinking the Steelers are the obvious choice at home.

As their records show, these two teams are much more even than predicted. 

If anything, the last meeting between these AFC North rivals suggests the Browns deserve more respect than this spread is giving them.

Cleveland beat Pittsburgh 27-24 on Oct. 1, but the score doesn’t fully capture how much trouble its defense caused Aaron Rodgers. 

The Browns sacked him five times, intercepted him twice, and got their hands on eight passes.

The Steelers have thrown the ball on 64.2 percent of their offensive plays this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL heading into Week 8, which is a dangerous habit against a defense that already knows how to get after the QB.

Pittsburgh has struggled on offense of late, managing just 16 points in its win over the Saints in Paris.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) grimaces after he was sacked during the first half of an NFL football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa, Fla., Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026. AP Photo/Chris O'Meara

Now it returns from an international trip to face a division opponent.

Cleveland’s offense has been inconsistent, but there’s some encouragement there, too.

The resurgent Deshaun Watson led a 491-yard effort against Tennessee on Sunday, with another late drive to set up the winning field goal.

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The Browns haven’t won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh since 2003, and I’m not necessarily calling for that streak to end. 

But with a total of 39.5, more than a field goal is too much to pass up.

LAST WEEK: 1-0 (Vikings W) 

SEASON: 2-5

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dylan Svoboda is a versatile writer and analyst across many sports. He’s particularly knowledgeable about the big three — MLB, the NFL and the NBA.