Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is facing a competitive reelection contest heading into Tuesday's primary, with recent polling suggesting a three-way race between the incumbent, progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman and reality television personality Spencer Pratt.

Concerns over wildfire recovery, homelessness, crime, housing and affordability have dominated the race for the mayoralty so far. If no candidate secures more than 50 percent of the vote in the June 2 election, the top two finishers will advance to a November runoff. As no candidate has appeared close to an outright majority in recent surveys, that outcome is increasingly likely.

Latest Polling and Predictions

Bass, a Democrat seeking a second term, enters Tuesday's primary election as the favorite to advance. However, recent polling suggests the race has tightened in the run-up, with Raman and Pratt both within striking distance of the incumbent.

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll released on May 28 found Bass leading with 26 percent support, followed closely by Raman at 25 percent and Pratt at 22 percent. The poll, conducted May 19-24 among 1,913 registered voters, marks a shift from earlier surveys that showed Bass with a somewhat larger advantage.

Raman told Newsweek in a written statement that the UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll "shows that despite millions of dollars in attack ads from Karen Bass' political allies and millions more spent by the national MAGA machine to prop up Spencer Pratt, our campaign for working people is breaking through and I'm in position to make the general election."

An Emerson College poll conducted May 9-10 placed Bass at 30 percent, ahead of Pratt on 22 percent and Raman on 19 percent. Before that, a UCLA Luskin poll conducted between March 15 and 29 found Bass leading with 25 percent support, while Pratt and Raman were both in the low teens. Roughly 40 percent of voters remained undecided.

Prediction markets, meanwhile, continue to give Bass the strongest chance of ultimately winning the mayoralty. Kalshi placed Bass' chances at 62 percent, compared with 25 percent for Pratt and 13 percent for Raman as of June 1. Polymarket showed similar estimates, giving Bass a 64 percent chance, Pratt 21 percent and Raman 15 percent as of the same date.

Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes. Their prices reflect trader sentiment and can fluctuate based on polling, fundraising, campaign developments and broader political trends, though they do not always accurately predict election results.

Bass Defends Her Record

The incumbent mayor has spent the campaign defending her record, especially her homelessness strategy and emergency response initiatives. Bass argues that her administration has moved tens of thousands of people indoors and laid the groundwork for longer-term reforms. She has also confronted criticism over her handling of the aftermath of last January's Palisades fire.

Bass has also taken aim at her opposition, describing Pratt as a "political dilettante." She said of the former reality TV star last week, "He is an entertainer and that's what he's doing is entertaining."

The mayor has also questioned how successful a candidate associated with President Donald Trump could be in Los Angeles, where Democrats overwhelmingly dominate local politics.

"This is Los Angeles," Bass said. "This is not a MAGA city."

Bass has secured endorsements from several prominent California Democrats, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Governor Gavin Newsom.

Despite the tightening polls, Bass' campaign remains confident. Spokesperson Alex Stack told Newsweek in a statement, "Karen Bass has led in every credible poll throughout this election because she's delivering results for Angelenos."

Pratt's Unconventional Campaign

Pratt, who became nationally known in the 2000s through the reality series The Hills, has built an unconventional mayoral campaign that has drawn support from celebrities and media personalities. His backers include Paris Hilton, podcaster Joe Rogan, fellow TV personality Kristin Cavallari and actress Katharine McPhee.

Pratt, who lost his home in the Palisades fire, has made the city's recovery efforts a major focus of his bid for office.

Trump has also voiced his liking of Pratt, something his opponents have latched on to in the race to secure support.

"I’d like to see him do well. He's a character," the president said, adding, "I assume he probably supports me. ... I heard he's a big MAGA person."

Speaking with NBC Nightly News last week, Pratt said: "My race is a local race. I don't care what's going on in the, in the national politics, in other states. I am running for a local position."

Raman Courts Progressive Voters

Raman has campaigned as the leading progressive alternative in the race, focusing on issues such as housing affordability and homelessness. Some of her supporters include the labor union United Auto Workers Region 6 and actress Hannah Einbinder.

"Angelenos are demonstrating that they do not have to choose between the incumbent's broken status quo and a Trump-endorsed candidate running on fear, cruelty, and dishonesty," Raman told Newsweek. "They are hungry for a different future for this city—one that is affordable, functional, creative, and safe."

"I will fight every day to make sure Los Angeles works for and belongs to the people who built it," she added.

Raman has also made opposition to the Trump administration a prominent feature of her campaign, particularly regarding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations.

In a video posted on Instagram, Raman said Los Angeles was being "terrorized by ICE" and referenced the president's comments about Pratt.

On X, she said Bass represented the "status quo that has let ICE run rampant in our streets and fought against Angelenos exercising their first amendment rights," and she described Pratt as a "right-wing extremist who would openly court ICE to invade our city."

Is LA Mayor Election Partisan?

Los Angeles mayoral elections are nonpartisan, meaning candidates' party affiliations do not appear on the ballot and voters are not required to choose along party lines.

But party politics still play a major role. Two of the top three candidates, Bass and Raman, are Democrats, while Pratt has said he is a Republican.

Candidates have received party-aligned endorsements and funding, and they are widely understood through a partisan lens even if the election is structured to avoid formal party labels.

What Happens Next

Voters are set to head to the polls on June 2, with a runoff possibly following on November 3 if no candidate secures majority support.